Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Obama's Failed Economic Policy Analysis

While driving in to my job (for which I am grateful to have, and I might add this is the best company I have ever worked for), Bill Handel on KFI stated that the unemployment rate under President Obama has dropped, and that we should consider this a success of his Presidency.......In the words of Dr. Ben Carson, Handel demonstrated that he is part of the "useful bunch of idiots" needed for policy to succeed.  I decided to perform an analysis of the numbers from impartial sources (US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the S&P 500) to see if the numbers are true.......No major surprise, the claims of successful economic policy are pretty much bunk.  Here is how this all fits together.

First, we need to take a look at the unemployment rate.  At first glance, the chart below supports the claim that the unemployment rate has decreased.

Everything is puppy-dogs and butterflies, right?  The number definitely shows a decline.  The decline is only one-sided.......unemployment rate is skewed by the labor participation rate (specifically, people who are employed and people who are actively seeking a job).  The below chart shows that there has been a year-over-year decline in the labor participation rate.

With essentially a 4 million headcount decrease in the labor participation rate, it would be reasonable to expect a significant decrease in the the unemployment rate.  There are several factors that may have contributed to this, including retirements (which clearly does not create new jobs) and individuals no longer seeking employment.

Finally, one must examine the change in population to see if there are changes that should be noted. The below listed chart shows the changes over the same period.

So, making sure I understand this......the population is showing an increase, year-to-year, but the labor force is showing a decrease in participation rate?  Long story short, the claims of the Obama administration make absolutely no sense.  It is yet again proof of failed Democratic economic policy, and that jobs are not created by increased government regulation and restrictions.  It should also be noted that underemployment (think of a college graduate working at Starbucks as they cannot find work) is not considered in any of the above analysis....and is yet further strain on the economy.

So, ask yourself this.....are you better off than you were when the Obama administration made a mess of this country?

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